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Labour’s crumbling support spelled out in exclusive data | LBC
In exclusive polling for LBC to mark Keir Starmer's first year in government, More in Common found three in 10 of Labour voters regret their decision.
Luke Tryl, Director of More in Common, joined LBC's political editor Natasha Clark and Shelagh Fogarty to discuss the findings in detail.
Luke discussed Labour's crumbling voter base and the threat of Reform and Nigel Farage, which Shelagh notes gives UK politics a 'Trumpian' dynamic.
The data underscores the difficulties Labour has experienced in transitioning from opposition to government.
A series of blunders have led to a sharp fall in the government’s popularity, with Reform UK now consistently topping opinion polls. A YouGov survey from June, for instance, found that the Reform would be the largest party with 271 seats if an election was called.
More than a third of respondents (37%) ranked the decision to withdraw the Winter Fuel Allowance from more than 10 million pensioners as 'the biggest mistake' the government has made in its first 12 months.
Recognising the public anger, Sir Keir U-turned on the policy last month, reinstating the payment to more than three-quarters of those who’d lost it.
Attempts to reduce the number of people for Personal Independence Payments (17%) and the increasing employer contributions to national insurance (13%) were the next two most-cited decisions when we asked about Sir Keir’s biggest mistake in a difficult year for the government.
The polling was carried out on the weekend of the 28th/29th June ahead of the vote on the welfare reform bill.
The reforms were eventually diluted earlier this week after a major rebellion from Labour backbenchers, which forced the government to drop all reference to the payments.
Ahead of the vote on the modified bill, 57% of voters told our poll that the government was doing a bad job in looking after the most vulnerable in society.
By contrast, only 19% said the government was doing a good job at protecting the most vulnerable.
On Sir Keir’s leadership, the findings were mixed.
However, on the international stage, where Sir Keir has arguably been most sure-footed, voters believe other world leaders have the edge. Of the six world leaders we compared, 32% said President Donald Trump was best at standing up for his country’s interests, followed by Volodymyr Zelensky (24%).
Sir Keir ranked third (10%), above Vladimir Putin (6%), Benjamin Netanyahu (4%) and Emmanuel Macron (3%).
In an interview with the Observer over the weekend, the prime minister conceded that he was “heavily focused” on NATO and the Middle East ahead of the vote, and would have liked to have dedicated more time to speaking to his MPs about the welfare reform bill.
At the launch of the government’s 10-year NHS plan, LBC’’s Political Editor, Natasha Clark, asked the prime minister about his first 12 months in Number 10, and what advice he would give himself if he could turn back the clock to his first day at the Downing Street podium. He said he would tell himself to “focus on what matters most”:
“I came into politics relatively late in life. I’d done other things beforehand and I came in because I wanted to change the lives of working people for the better."
“For me, the reception we did the other day, getting the men and women from across the country into Downing Street… who are putting their lot into this country, whether it’s in public service or in many, many other ways, reminding me that this is who we’re doing it for.”
The Labour Party has been approached for comment on LBC’s poll.
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